521 HLI Determinations in Draft, 3 Months to Deadline: The Clock Is Running

521

Key Data

The NLC conducted 393 investigative hearings on HLI claims in FY2024/25 (Table 19, Row 4, p. 66). 521 determinations were at various stages of drafting at year-end (text following Table 20, p. 70; county breakdown in Figure 31). 1,160 total HLI claims have been admitted since the September 2021 deadline for receiving claims (Table 19, Row 2, p. 66). 180 Kilifi County claims were heard at the Malindi Red Cross Centre in June 2025 — the largest single cluster (Table 20, Row 20; Figure 31, p. 70). The statutory deadline for completing all assessments and determinations is 21 September 2026 (Section 15(11) NLC Act, as amended; p. 66).

What Is Happening

Approximately three months. That is the time between now and the statutory deadline under Section 15(11) of the National Land Commission (NLC) Act for completing all Historical Land Injustices (HLI) assessments and determinations. As of June 2026, the 21 September 2026 deadline is weeks away, not years.

The numbers tell the story of a Commission racing the clock. Table 19 records 393 investigative hearings during the year, bringing the cumulative total to 803. Only 2 new determinations were finalised, bringing that cumulative total to 186. But 521 sit in draft (text following Table 20, p. 70). The gap between 1,160 admitted claims and 186 completed determinations is 974. That arithmetic is CounselConnect's; the report provides the individual figures.

Figure 31 (p. 70) maps the 521 drafts by county. Kilifi dominates at 180, followed by Mbari claims (76), Tana River (57), Mombasa (57), Baringo (35), and Kwale (30). Table 20 records the Kilifi hearings: 180 claims heard at the Malindi Red Cross Centre from 2 to 13 June 2025. The Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) and the Kenya Legal and Ethical Issues Network on HIV and AIDS (KELIN) provided logistical and financial support (Table 22, pp. 77-78).

Why It Is Happening

Section 15(11) of the NLC Act, as amended by the Land Laws (Amendment) Act 2016, imposed the deadline (p. 66). The Commission accelerated hearing schedules across Tana River, the Ogiek areas of Mount Elgon, Baringo, Nyeri, Mombasa, Kwale, Isiolo, Garissa, and Kilifi in rapid succession (Table 20). Named partners provided support: FAO funded logistics, KELIN supported hearings, NAMATI partnered on the HLI conference, Natural Justice and Community Land Action Now (CLAN) supported public hearings, and Action Aid participated (Table 22, pp. 77-78).

CounselConnect's interpretation: the scale of the task is enormous. Colonial-era title grants, post-independence allocation irregularities, and ethnic displacement patterns underlie many claims. The report does not provide this historical framing, but the geographic concentration of claims on the coast (Kilifi 180, Mombasa 57, Kwale 30, Tana River 57 = 324 coastal and near-coastal claims) supports it.

Practice Impact and Revenue

The 521 draft determinations will produce outcomes that both benefit and disappoint claimant communities. Winners need legal support for implementation and enforcement of gazetted determinations; those dissatisfied need support for review or appeal. Both streams generate work.

CounselConnect's interpretation: the Commissioner transition has already taken place. The NLC now operates under new Commissioners who are absorbing the institutional files, including the 521 draft HLI determinations. With the September 2026 deadline roughly three months away, the new Commission faces the task of finalising determinations drafted under their predecessors. Advocates representing HLI claimants should engage the new Commission's HLI team directly and without delay — institutional transitions create bottlenecks, and the deadline does not wait for the new Commissioners to settle in.

Revenue Impact

HLI work is funded through legal-aid panels, NGO partnerships, or community-pooled retainers. Table 22 names the partners: KELIN, NAMATI, Natural Justice, CLAN, Action Aid, and the Drylands Learning and Capacity Building Initiative (DLCI) (pp. 77-78). Build relationships with these organisations. CounselConnect's interpretation: determination implementation — once determinations are gazetted — is a practice area few advocates have built. The first to build it will define the market.

Strategic Insight — What Most Advocates Will Miss

Kilifi's 180 claims (Figure 31) sit at the centre of what CounselConnect identifies as the coastal land question: colonial-era title grants, post-independence allocation irregularities, and communities displaced from ancestral land. The report does not use this term. But the concentration of claims in Kilifi (180), Mombasa (57), Kwale (30), and Tana River (57) totals 324 coastal and near-coastal claims. When these determinations are finalised, they will produce the most complex and contested enforcement disputes in the country. Advocates with coastal land expertise and community relationships will be positioned; everyone else will be catching up.

Action Checklist

1. 01Contact KELIN or NAMATI about partnership on HLI hearing representation this month — Table 22 names both as NLC partners with active programmes and funding.
2. 02Review NLC Act Section 15 and the September 2026 deadline provisions this week; understand the statutory consequences if it passes with claims unresolved.
3. 03Map the 521 draft determinations by county using Figure 31 (p. 70) this week, so you know which are pending in your area.
4. 04Draft a client advisory explaining HLI determination enforcement this quarter — communities with favourable determinations will need to know the next legal steps.
5. 05Track legislative proposals to extend the September 2026 deadline on an ongoing basis; an extension Bill would change strategy for every pending claim.